Attack of NATO forces on the Silala check-post of Armed
Forces has once again periled the already very much deteriorated
relations, both political and military, between the two states. The dirt
of Abbottabad stint and Raymond Davis fiasco hadn’t settled yet and a
new incident in the shape of Silala check-post crept up.
Much has been
written and debated about the role of US and Pakistan in the region. It
seems that lately there has been a love-lost between the two flag
bearers of this war. This 10-year long alliance in the war on “terror”
is a tale full of mistrust and deception, as dubbed by each side from
time to time. The current relations between the two states should be
dissected from the perspective of national interests of each. Obviously
anyone who is related to this war in Afghanistan is there because it has
some stakes in it. Afghanistan, being the backyard of Pakistan, makes
it the top drawer concern for Pakistan.
Having the biggest stakes in
Afghanistan, Pakistan can never take its eyes off from it. It never can.
Many people still blame General Zia for dragging Pakistan into Afghan
war with the Russians but the fact was Pakistan had no other choice.
Pakistan could never have allowed USSR, at that time, on its one border
and India on its other, both countries being hostile to Pakistan. Same
is the case now, whatever the situation is, Pakistan keeps Afghanistan
central to its very security. Pakistani authorities did take some
relatively harsh and much needed measures after the strikes from NATO
forces, including cutting off of NATO supplies and also issuing the
guidelines to troops on borders to retaliate without following the
proper chain-of-command. Certainly these steps don’t widen the cheeks in
White House and Pentagon because ever since that incident took place,
no drone strike has been undertaken in Pakistani territory.
It is evident
that drone strikes and NATO supply routes are essential to the war in
Afghanistan as US-led NATO forces pretty much depend on these. The main
issue at hand is to probe the way out for the two countries and analyze
how things would fall into places after some time.The annoyance of
United States over cutting the supply route is very apparent. Though
United States do have the reserves to keep on waging the war on
Afghanistan and also the very expensive supply route through
Russian-influenced Central Asian Republics but the recent indication
from Russian authorities that they might cut off those lines as well, in
order to pressurize United States on the issue of installing ballistic
missile defences in Europe.That has raised the eyebrows of US officials
and they really want the supply route from Pakistan operational as they
cannot afford a re-telecast of Cuban Missile Crisis. And it is for that
same reason that officials of Obama administration are pressing Pakistan
to reconsider its decision. Perhaps that was the reason the American
Ambassador to Pakistan Cameron Munter met Pakistan Premier on Thursday
to press him to re-establish the supply lines.
Supply lines would
eventually be opened someday but the apparent rationale for haste of
United States is certainly because it does not want to be held ransom by
Russia over Northern Distribution Network (NDN). It could have been a
bit easier for United States to negotiate with Pakistan if the ‘memogate
scandal’ wouldn’t have happened.Memogate scandal and the apparent
altercation between military and government observed in the Supreme
Court of Pakistan’s hearing testifies the fact that nothing is smooth
right now in Islamabad. United States wants the supply lines to be
restored while Islamabad is in shambles because of its divisions with
Rawalpindi. US doesn’t know whom to talk and negotiate with but the
recent suggestion that Pakistan’s Foreign Minister responded to a query
from a US official after deliberations with army, discloses the fact
that who is in charge.
United States has to convince Pakistan Army out of
its decision of blockade of NATO supplies. On the contrary, Rawalpindi
has got the chance out of Silala check-post incident to distance itself
from US, which is very necessary because when US withdraws from
Afghanistan, it is obvious that Taliban will have a say in the new
setup. For that Pakistan needs to be soft with Taliban and that’s better
than an anti-US posture.
Things are very complicated and tangled for
Pakistan and United States as well. United States may eventually have to
use a bargaining chip to seduce Pakistan to restore the supply lines
early as they did in the Cuban Crisis when they promised to abandon
their base in Turkey in return of USSR bumping off the missiles deployed
in Cuba. It remains to be seen what ultimately happens but one thing is
for sure that Pakistan has a bumpy road ahead and if it didn’t make its
course of action right then it might lead to destruction. It’s about
time.
