The Charade In and Around Iran

Published in Frontier Post on 17 March, 2012
Also appeared on Express Tribune Blogs on 20 March, 2012
Published on PakObserver on 7 April, 2012

 

Iran has always played the role of the odd one out in the international arena. Its stand out stance from the rest of the world has distinguished it from others and as a result pretty much isolated it.

There has been a lot of conjecture about an attack on Iran’s nuclear installations, whether from Israel or the US. Iran has always been cooperative with the IAEA over the years but somehow they have been portrayed as a rogue and uncooperative. Just a week ago, Iran agreed to allow UN inspectors to inspect their notorious nuclear facility against the odds.

However, the dust of an attack has settled very much. The recent meeting between Netanyahu and Obama was followed by a barrage of meetings between officials of the two states. The final showdown between Israeli PM and US President proved to be the real dust settler as Obama communicated his intention of not allowing any attack on Iranian soil to Israel. The US, in particular the Obama administration, has been of the view that Iran should be dealt with through diplomatic channels and sanctions should be the harshest punishment.

That raises a question.

Israel always knew about the intentions of the US, but then why are Israel and the European nations pressing for surgical strikes on Iran? Were they serious in carrying out an attack? Was war always on the cards?

The interaction between states, including war, has become a very complex web whereby the interests of the states are dependent on each other.

To judge the current episode, one must study the interests of major players in this charade. The United States, being the overseer of everything happening around the globe, is the one that has the most stakes involved.

The International media has always portrayed Iran and the United States on loggerheads. But, careful scrutiny of the relation between the two suggests otherwise. Iran has always played the role of pain for others, but it has never threatened the United States’ interest in the region, whether it is Strait of Hormuz, Afghanistan or Iraq. Moreover, Iran has always helped in preserving the interests of the US in the region.

In turn, the United States has always used Iran as a threatening tool for Saudi Arabia and Turkey. The US used Iran to make them wary of Iranian threat to establish its bases on their soil. A rogue Iranian posture has helped the US just fine in reaching this objective.

Iran has been the silent neighbor of Afghanistan and Iraq, two countries where the US spent much of the 21^st Century. It paved the way for the US in making the environment conducive in both the countries, especially in the regime establishment. Both, Afghanistan and Iraq, have a government that is Shiite and Iran has been the biggest proponent of Shiite Islam. Iran always had good relations with Northern Alliance in Afghanistan and it has helped the US conjure up and provide stability to the flailing government.

The same goes for the Maliki government in Iraq. The bottom line is that Iran is indispensable for the United States at the moment and its importance has increased more than ever considering the withdrawal of US forces from both war-torn countries.

Another question mark is the role of the US in Syria. Syria has been known for its allegiance to Iran and the recent reluctance of the US to take military action against Assad’s regime speaks volumes.

The next question is that of Israel’s skepticism over Iran, which is a very dubious one. Recent events show that Israel does not give the same importance to Iran as has been given by the US. Nonetheless, Israel has somewhat exaggerated the threat of Iran to itself and has gone to the extent of calling Iran as an ‘existential’ threat to Israel. However, this claim of theirs was discredited by their ex-Mossad Chief at the start of February, 2012. Even a couple of days ago, he was on record saying that anyone thinking about an attack from Israel on Iran is nuts.

One thing we may be forgetting is the Israel – Hezbollah war and the influence of Iran on Hezbollah. Hezbollah, virtually, tore the image of invincibility of Israel apart and that is something Israel has never been able to digest or forget. The inability of Israel to take Lebanon down draws many questions. If Israel was unable to brush aside a small militia then how would they be able to tackle Iran, which is supported by a full-fledged army and state machinery including the tools of propaganda?

If all these things are a factor of not going to war, then why has there been so much fuss about an attack on Iran?

To answer this question, we have to consider a few basic things. The United States is going to have elections this year. Contesting for the second-term is the time when a regime is the most weak. Israel and the EU understand that fragility of Obama and are trying to cash in on it. Obama cannot afford to lose Jewish votes and that is why he is walking on a tight rope. European countries are themselves fighting their own war of survival in the EU and though the European Countries don’t say it, their economic problems have been triggered by the acts of the US.

To sum up and put everything in a nutshell, it can be concluded that an attack on Iran is a very distant possibility, as the costs attached with the attack are much higher than stopping it from acquiring a nuclear weapon, a weapon, that Iran claims, it is not trying to acquire. Things have started to settle and Obama administration has almost handled Israel but it remains to be seen how the next administration will cope with the desires of Israel to take Iran down.

Iftikhar Chaudhry and Our 'Independent' Judiciary

Contract extension of two years granted to Registrar of Supreme Court uncovers another hypocrisy of the so-called 'independent' judiciary of Pakistan. Before Dr. Faqir Hussain (Registrar Supreme Court), Supreme Court also granted Justice Ramday (r), the status of Ad-hoc judge by giving him extension. This, all came after the apex court gave a decision about sacking all the civil servants (especially in Police Service) who were on contract extensions after their retirement.

In this case, all the morality and rules have been thrown out of the window and nepotism has prevailed in the top justice providing institution of Pakistan, on whom there are so many hopes of the people. This incident is not just a single one where judiciary has abrogated the very same laws, that it is supposed to protect.

One wonders, from where would the respite for the public would come. Most corrupt government in the history of Pakistan, an opposition that is as insincere as government, judiciary that is enjoying all the perks under the garb of 'independent judiciary' and media that is spreading despair all across. For me, calling Iftikhar Chaudhry, Chief Justice is a disgrace.

Pak-US Standoff

Published in Frontier Post on 26 December, 2011 

Attack of NATO forces on the Silala check-post of Armed Forces has once again periled the already very much deteriorated relations, both political and military, between the two states. The dirt of Abbottabad stint and Raymond Davis fiasco hadn’t settled yet and a new incident in the shape of Silala check-post crept up.

Much has been written and debated about the role of US and Pakistan in the region. It seems that lately there has been a love-lost between the two flag bearers of this war. This 10-year long alliance in the war on “terror” is a tale full of mistrust and deception, as dubbed by each side from time to time. The current relations between the two states should be dissected from the perspective of national interests of each. Obviously anyone who is related to this war in Afghanistan is there because it has some stakes in it. Afghanistan, being the backyard of Pakistan, makes it the top drawer concern for Pakistan.

Having the biggest stakes in Afghanistan, Pakistan can never take its eyes off from it. It never can. Many people still blame General Zia for dragging Pakistan into Afghan war with the Russians but the fact was Pakistan had no other choice. Pakistan could never have allowed USSR, at that time, on its one border and India on its other, both countries being hostile to Pakistan. Same is the case now, whatever the situation is, Pakistan keeps Afghanistan central to its very security. Pakistani authorities did take some relatively harsh and much needed measures after the strikes from NATO forces, including cutting off of NATO supplies and also issuing the guidelines to troops on borders to retaliate without following the proper chain-of-command. Certainly these steps don’t widen the cheeks in White House and Pentagon because ever since that incident took place, no drone strike has been undertaken in Pakistani territory.

It is evident that drone strikes and NATO supply routes are essential to the war in Afghanistan as US-led NATO forces pretty much depend on these. The main issue at hand is to probe the way out for the two countries and analyze how things would fall into places after some time.The annoyance of United States over cutting the supply route is very apparent. Though United States do have the reserves to keep on waging the war on Afghanistan and also the very expensive supply route through Russian-influenced Central Asian Republics but the recent indication from Russian authorities that they might cut off those lines as well, in order to pressurize United States on the issue of installing ballistic missile defences in Europe.That has raised the eyebrows of US officials and they really want the supply route from Pakistan operational as they cannot afford a re-telecast of Cuban Missile Crisis. And it is for that same reason that officials of Obama administration are pressing Pakistan to reconsider its decision. Perhaps that was the reason the American Ambassador to Pakistan Cameron Munter met Pakistan Premier on Thursday to press him to re-establish the supply lines.

Supply lines would eventually be opened someday but the apparent rationale for haste of United States is certainly because it does not want to be held ransom by Russia over Northern Distribution Network (NDN). It could have been a bit easier for United States to negotiate with Pakistan if the ‘memogate scandal’ wouldn’t have happened.Memogate scandal and the apparent altercation between military and government observed in the Supreme Court of Pakistan’s hearing testifies the fact that nothing is smooth right now in Islamabad. United States wants the supply lines to be restored while Islamabad is in shambles because of its divisions with Rawalpindi. US doesn’t know whom to talk and negotiate with but the recent suggestion that Pakistan’s Foreign Minister responded to a query from a US official after deliberations with army, discloses the fact that who is in charge.

United States has to convince Pakistan Army out of its decision of blockade of NATO supplies. On the contrary, Rawalpindi has got the chance out of Silala check-post incident to distance itself from US, which is very necessary because when US withdraws from Afghanistan, it is obvious that Taliban will have a say in the new setup. For that Pakistan needs to be soft with Taliban and that’s better than an anti-US posture.

Things are very complicated and tangled for Pakistan and United States as well. United States may eventually have to use a bargaining chip to seduce Pakistan to restore the supply lines early as they did in the Cuban Crisis when they promised to abandon their base in Turkey in return of USSR bumping off the missiles deployed in Cuba. It remains to be seen what ultimately happens but one thing is for sure that Pakistan has a bumpy road ahead and if it didn’t make its course of action right then it might lead to destruction. It’s about time.